Polymarket Data: Democrats 50% Likely to Control Both Chambers After 2026 Midterms

Monitoring data from PPP prediction-market tools shows that in Polymarket's '2026 U.S. midterm congressional control' event, Democrats are now assigned a 50% probability of winning both the Senate and the House. The market also prices a 38% chance that Republicans control the Senate while Democrats keep the House, and a 12% chance of a Republican sweep. Settlement will follow the actual balance of power after the Nov. 3, 2026 midterm election. In each chamber, the party securing a majority of seats takes control; if no party wins a majority, the Senate will be deemed to be controlled by the party that holds half of the voting seats and also has the U.S. vice presidency. Tether U.S. executive Jesse Spiro has previously warned that the 2026 midterms could change the congressional political landscape and, in turn, affect the regulatory progress the crypto industry has achieved in Washington over the past two years.